Here are 2 articles about jobs in the future and AI. I find these are positive:
Nov. 17, 2017 "It may not be today, may not be tomorrow, but the robotic revolution of work is coming": Today I found this article by Noah Smith in the Globe and Mail:
Amid all the fear of robots taking human jobs, skeptical voices have been asking: Where are these robots? Machine-learning systems – commonly marketed as artificial intelligence, but really closer to fancy statistical algorithms – are beating humans at games, improving search algorithms and transforming industry in countless small ways.
But so far, the machine-learning boom hasn't done anything to reverse the slump in productivity growth.
Now, it's possible that productivity gains are just being mismeasured. But the slowdown seems to be worldwide, including in developing countries. That's inconsistent with the theories about sweeping robotization. As economist Larry Summers has pointed out, a robot boom would raise both productivity and business investment, as companies rushed to install the new machine-learning systems. That hasn't happened.
In a new paper, economists Erik Brynjolfsson, Daniel Rock and Chad Syverson have an answer: Wait. It's coming.
Often, when a very versatile new technology comes along, it takes a while before businesses figure out how to use it effectively.
Electricity, as economist Paul David has documented, is a classic example. Simply adding electric power to factories made them a bit better, but the real gains came when companies figured out that changing the configuration of factories would allow electricity to dramatically speed production.
Machine learning, Mr. Brynjolfsson et al. say, will be much the same. Because it's such a general-purpose technology, companies will eventually find whole new ways of doing business that are built around it.
On the production side, they'll move beyond obvious things such as driverless cars, and create new gadgets and services that we can only dream of. And machine learning will also lead to other new technologies, just as computer technology and the internet led to machine learning.
If Mr. Brynjolfsson et al. are right, then those who have dismissed the rise-of-the-robots story are in for a nasty shock. That phenomenon could just be getting started. On one hand, that would make the economy even more fantastically productive than it is today. But it could also lead to the widespread displacement of human labour that many fear.
During the Industrial Revolution, there was deep anxiety that new technologies would make human labour obsolete, sending wages, employment and living standards crashing. Instead, the opposite happened – humans learned to do much more productive tasks by co-operating with machines instead of competing with them.
A weaver displaced by power looms could now oversee a team of workers operating the very machines that put them out of business. The shift took a long time, and it wasn't painless, but eventually most workers got much richer.
Techno-optimists like to recall the misplaced fear of industrialization when arguing that machine learning will be a good thing for human workers. But there's no reason history has to repeat itself. It might be the case that people simply have two kinds of skills – physical and cognitive.
In the Industrial Revolution, technology replaced many human physical skills, but we learned to use our brains to complement the dumb machines.
But now, if machine learning replaces human cognitive skills, what skills will humans have left that machines lack?
Some say that social skills will be the next frontier – humans will complement machines by dealing with other humans, through marketing, management and so forth, with machines doing all the technical thinking.
But what if machine learning also manages to replicate humans' ability to interact with each other? Already, bots have become hugely influential on social media. There seems every reason to believe that the cold pseudo-intelligences now being developed by software engineers will eventually be able to simulate a human in a wide variety of interpersonal interactions.
So if Mr. Brynjolfsson et al. are right, the scary robots takeover could still be rushing toward us. But there's also a chance that they're wrong. The productivity boom from machine learning, even if it comes, could be short-lived.
The computer and internet revolutions provide a precedent. In 1987, famed economist Robert Solow quipped that "you can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics."
Eventually the statistics caught up – in the late 1990s and early 2000s, information-technology adoption pushed productivity growth back to levels not seen since the mid-20th century.
Companies made themselves more efficient by replacing paper records and communications systems with electronic ones.
They created new consumer products – video games, smart phones and social networks.
And they began developing whole new business models based around the internet – outsourcing, supply chains, just-in-time product development and the gig economy.
In other words, all the developments that Mr. Brynjolfsson et al. foresee for machine learning happened with computers and the internet. But in terms of productivity, the boom only lasted about a decade.
So no one, even the smartest economists, really knows what's going to happen now that machine learning has burst upon the scene.
It could be the replacement and devaluation of most human labour.
It could be only a tiny blip in a long process of technological stagnation.
Or it could be the beginning of a new age of widespread human affluence. Only time will tell.
Noah Smith is a Bloomberg View columnist. He was an assistant professor of finance at Stony Brook University, and he blogs at Noahpinion.
There are 4 comments:
Ken__W
2 days ago
So my business makes and sells product XYZ, right now with our mix of automated machines and human workers we can produce 25,000 units of XYZ each month.
The problem is our global market only buys 10,000 units of XYZ each month.
There isn't a productivity slum, the problem is businesses have already reached and exceeded peak demand for their products on a global basis.
Why would we need greater automation (a robotic revolution) going forward when we can already vastly exceed the global market demands for any given product without further automation.
Because it could (potentially!) free up tens of millions of people to tackle the myriad of problems humanity has beyond the problem already being addressed with your product XYZ, including the problems faced by millions of people who would love to be customers for your product XYZ but do not have the means to be customers.
My XYZ product is sold to hospitals and every hospital has my product, there are no new markets for my product.
Its the same problem every product today faces, which is why a productivity slump does not exist. We are a global world, it doesn't take long for a product to reach full market saturation and once that occurs productivity drops cause it can't go any further.
Businesses know this which is why all employ one of two practices.
1st is making cheap products that don't last so we must buy the product again and again. Most businesses today employ this method.
2nd is to create the belief the product you sold 6 months ago is now obsolete so people will buy a newer version. This is the method employed in the electronic device sector. Look how many people replace their perfectly good cell phones, Apple is king of product obsolescence.
Both of these bad wasteful practices are deemed to be innovation to justify them. I'm also unaware humanity faces any problems that need solving?
Can I get the benefits your product provides if I visit a hospital in Ghana?
I agree with your points on the two practices you describe. I suspect this is a problem a little more for regulators than it is for entrepreneurs like you and me.
Just to make sure, when you say, "I'm also unaware humanity faces any problems that need solving?", that was just kidding, right?
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Dec. 28, 2018 "Welcome to the machine": Today I found this article by Claire Brownell in the Edmonton Journal:
Somen Mondal had two problems while running the company he launched 10 years ago, only one of which was a good one for an entrepreneur to have.
The good problem was that his safety compliance management software business was growing and he needed to hire a couple of new salespeople a week, which attracted hundreds of applications. That need also created a related and less exciting problem:
Someone had to actually read those applications and decide who to call back.
“When we were making decisions about who to bring in for an interview, it was really based on gut feel,” Mondal said. “We’re very data-driven as business founders. We thought, ‘There’s got to be a better way.’”
Today, there is a better way, one that is powered by artificial intelligence. After selling that business, Mondal founded Ideal, a Toronto-based software company that uses AI to identify promising candidates from stacks of résumés, thereby leaving hiring managers with more time to meet prospective employees in person.
AI systems are now much better than humans at identifying patterns in large amounts of data and that has white-collar workers worrying about their jobs just like assembly line workers have since the 1970s. They’re likely worrying for naught — at least, for now.
The machines’ inability to use common sense or generalize means they can’t do much beyond the scope of one narrow task. As a result, AI is more likely to be a helpful assistant that takes care of boring, repetitive tasks than a job-taking threat.
“If you ask any hiring manager, they hate going through résumés. That’s the one thing they hate to do,” Mondal said. “You know what they love doing? They love talking to candidates. They love talking to people, meeting people. That’s something a computer can’t replace.”
The artificial intelligence field has exploded during the past five years due to the development of a technique called deep learning that uses code to mimic the human brain’s neural networks.
Deep learning is already powering everything from Uber’s suggestions for pickup and drop-off points to Netflix’s recommendations for what to watch next, with computers getting better at recognizing patterns as they process more and more data.
The introduction of machines capable of learning was bound to make some people queasy, given our long cultural history of stories about a future human-robot war. Add anxiety about the global economy and the decline of the North American
manufacturing sector and it’s easy to understand how some people are in a full-blown panic about the future of work.
Prominent voices in the tech sector have also added to the impression that a wide range of jobs is in imminent danger of being automated.
Prestigious Silicon Valley accelerator Y Combinator is studying whether a universal basic income could alleviate some of the social impacts of mass unemployment caused by technology. Microsoft Corp. founder Bill Gates has suggested taxing robots to recover some of the lost revenue from displaced workers.
But artificial intelligence has a long way to go before it can replace most human employees, according to a November report released by a team of prominent researchers in the field.
The Artificial Intelligence Index report found that AI systems can now match or outperform humans in doing specific tasks such as document translation and speech recognition, but little progress has been made in replicating general intelligence.
The report gave the example of translating a document from Chinese to English. An AI system might be just as good at translating the document, but a human can probably also perform related tasks such as understanding Chinese speech, answering questions about Chinese culture and recommending a good Chinese restaurant.
“Very different AI systems would be needed for each of these tasks,” the report said. “Machine performance may degrade dramatically if the original task is modified even slightly.”
Alan Mackworth, a professor at the University of British Columbia who holds the Canada research chair in artificial intelligence, said he thinks it will be at least a decade or two before researchers make any real progress in artificial general intelligence.
Some experts don’t think general AI is possible at all, but Mackworth cautioned against dismissing anything as impossible with a long enough time horizon.
“It’s very risky to say AI won’t be able to do this, that and the other thing,” he said. “Almost every time that prediction has been made, it’s eventually been proven false.”
It’s fun to speculate about what general AI might mean for humanity in the future, but the task-specific AI already present today has the potential to do a lot of good.
For example, Toronto-based Blue J Legal sells AI-powered software that analyzes case law to help lawyers predict the likely outcome of lawsuits, which founder Benjamin Alarie hopes will make the court system more efficient and improve access to justice.
“It gives both sides more confidence in the potential range of settlements,” he said. “And that’s great for clients. It’s also good for lawyers. Those cases can be resolved more quickly and more confidently by counsel.”
Analyzing case law is a job usually reserved for junior lawyers, but Alarie said clients that use his software don’t find they need fewer attorneys.
“It’s not a case of this sort of technology taking work away. It actually just channels the effort in the right direction,” he said.
In addition to making work easier and more productive, AI has the potential to lower the barriers to entry for creative pursuits.
Say you always wanted to be a DJ, but never had time to master the required technical skills. Waterloo, Ont.-based Rave Inc. is working on software that can take a playlist of songs, analyze places where the tracks sound good mixed together and turn them into a professional-sounding set.
Rave chief executive Mike Pazaratz said the software won’t replace big-name professional DJs, but it will make it easier for amateurs to go from idea to execution without having to buy expensive equipment and programs.
“We don’t want to take a human being out of the loop. That’s not at all what we want to do,” he said. “AI is your helpful friend. You say, ‘I want to do this thing,’ and the AI goes, ‘We can totally do this thing.’”
Artificial intelligence certainly won’t be a helpful force for everyone. Most jobs involve multiple tasks and human interactions, but there are some positions that could be completely replaced by the type of AI systems that already exist.
Erik Brynjolfsson, director of MIT’s Initiative on the Digital Economy and author of The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies, said he is confident artificial intelligence is good for the economy overall, but some workers will suffer, particularly those who spend most of their time doing repetitive information processing, such as bookkeepers, middle managers and travel agents.
For people who are worried their jobs are at risk, Brynjolfsson recommends focusing on the type of tasks AI won’t be able to perform for a long time, such as interacting with people.
If there are parts of your job an AI system might be able to perform better, people should embrace the machines and use the extra time to add value in other areas.
“The more we think about ways of structuring work so we’re racing with the machines, using the machines, the better it’s going to be for human labour and for total value creation,” Brynjolfsson said. “A combination of humans and machines is often going to be better than just humans or just machines.”
This week's theme is about jobs and technology in the present and future:
"Rise of the Robots"/ "So long, Future of Work … Hello, New World of Work"
"Is lifelong training the future of work?"/ "Japanese workers learn to embrace factory automation"
My week:
May 28, 2021 "Curfew pizza raises money for those in need, one pie at a time": Today I found this article by Amanda Jelowicki on Global News:
After finding another job, Liu started making a dozen or more each weekend. But knowing how many people were struggling in Montreal, he decided he wanted to help his community through his pizzas.
After reading the story about Raphael André last January — the Indigenous homeless man who was found frozen to death in a Montreal portable toilet — he decided to give back.
“Stories like that just motivated me to do something for my community,” he said.
Inspired by other chefs he followed on Instagram, Liu created an online pop up concept called “Curfew Pizza” at the beginning of April.
Once a week, people can sign up online to win a free pizza. Each week, Liu chose between 12 and 20 names of people he makes pizzas for. While the pizzas are free, he encourages donations. People started donating anywhere from $5 to $50 just for signing up.
He set a goal of raising $2,000 for two local charities, including Resilience Montreal, which helps homeless Indigenous people.
“Resilience Montreal would not exist if it weren’t for people going out of their way to make the place work and to do things like this,” said David Chapman, who runs the program.
American comedian Jimmy Kimmel got wind of Patrick’s endeavor on Instagram, and promised to match his donations, up to $2,000.
“Instagram is a very powerful marketing tool and more and more people resonate with this concept,” Liu said.
Despite almost reaching his fundraising goal, and Montreal’s curfew officially over, Liu doesn’t plan on shutting down his pizza concept.
“Curfew pizza is far more than being about pizza and curfew. Really, it’s about the community, about the local issues we want to raise awareness for, that we want to try to make positive things,” he said.
Curfew pizza raises money for those in need, one pie at a time - Montreal | Globalnews.ca
May 27, 2021 "Planning underway for 2021 K-Days as Street Performers Festival cancelled": Today I found this article on Global News:
Following the province’s “Open For Summer” announcement on Wednesday, K-Days announced Thursday planning is underway for its festival this year.
K-Days 2021 is set to run July 23 to Aug. 1 at the Edmonton Expo Centre.
On the official website, K-Days organizers explained: “With the health and safety of our community a top priority, we are planning and preparing to adapt to all public health orders.”
In a statement to Global News, a Northlands spokesperson would only say: “We are excited to see Alberta getting back to normal and we are working through what this week’s announcement means for K-Days and our partners and we will have more information by early next week.”
Planning underway for 2021 K-Days as Street Performers Festival cancelled - Edmonton | Globalnews.ca
My opinion: I don't know if I want to attend. The last time I attended was in 2014. All the other years I wasn't that interested. I like to go there for shopping and looking around exhibits, eat some fried food, and maybe watch a show.
Jun. 3, 2021: I found out they cancelled this. I was kind of disappointed.
K-Days officially cancelled for 2021 | CTV News
Jun. 1, 2021 J Mack Slaughter Jr. "How could a toe pain patient in the ER bring me to tears??": I found this on Facebook.
Awww...This is so sweet where J Mack Slaughter Jr. meets one of his old patients who's doing great.
Facebook
Jun. 2, 2021 "A student was barred from graduation for wearing the wrong shoes. So a teacher gave him the shoes off his own feet": Today I found this article by Sydney Page on Yahoo news:
When Daverius Peters arrived at his high school graduation ceremony on May 19, he was immediately blocked from entering the convention center where it was being held.
Peters, 18, was wearing the mandatory purple cap and gown, but a school representative standing at the front door told him his shoe selection was wrong.
He paced nervously outside the convention center, until he suddenly spotted a familiar face: John Butler.
Butler, 38, is a paraeducator at the school and mentors many of the students - including Peters. He was attending the ceremony as a parent rather than as a staff member, since his daughter was graduating, too.
Peters ran over to Butler and explained the shoe situation.
"Of course, that sounded crazy to me," said Butler, who has worked at the school for two years. "There was nothing eccentric about his shoes."
He approached the woman who had barred Peters from entering, "hoping that maybe if she saw me with him, she would let it go," Butler said. "But she insisted on not letting this young man in, and I didn't have time to go back and forth with her."
So, without hesitation, Butler bent down and did what he felt he had to do: He gave the student the shoes off his feet.
"It was a no-brainer," he said. "This was the most important moment in his life up to that point, and I wasn't going to let him miss it for anything."
There was, however, one considerable problem: "He wears a size 9, and I wear a size 11."
Ignoring the size discrepancy, Peters excitedly slid into Butler's tan loafers and bolted inside for the ceremony, just as the doors were closing. Butler took his seat wearing only socks, proudly disregarding the glares from people confused by his lack of footwear.
"I was just happy to see him receive his diploma," he said.
Her son genuinely believed that his footwear fit the dress code, she said, but "how about if I couldn't afford to buy him the shoes? This is not just about him; this is about the people that come after him."
Smith intends to address the matter with the school board to ensure it doesn't happen to another student in the future.
"If it wasn't for Mr. Butler's kind and thoughtful act, my child would have been sitting outside, and I wouldn't have known," Smith said. "I pray he will continue to work in the public school system because we need more teachers like him. Our young Black men need good role models and mentors like Mr. Butler."
As for Butler, "I was just doing my part. I didn't think much of it," he said.
But the simple shoe swap left a profound impression on Peters and his family.
"He gave the shoes off his own feet to my child," Smith said. "That says a lot about what type of man he is."
A student was barred from graduation for wearing the wrong shoes. So a teacher gave him the shoes off his own feet. (yahoo.com)
Jun. 3, 2021 Police 'amazed' as four customers thwart armed bank robbery in Abbotsford, B.C.: Today I found this article on Yahoo news.
ABBOTSFORD, B.C. — Police say a suspect is in custody after customers in a bank in British Columbia refused to obey orders from a shotgun-brandishing robber and tackled her instead.
A statement from Abbotsford police says the suspect entered the Scotiabank branch just before noon Wednesday and ordered customers to the floor.
As she threw bags onto a counter and demanded money, police say one customer confronted her and three more stepped up.
The four tackled and disarmed the woman and held her until officers arrived minutes later.
No one was hurt and Sgt. Judy Bird says a 46-year-old is facing robbery and firearms-related charges.
Bird says police are thankful for the community support and "amazed" at the willingness of the four customers to protect others in the bank.
"As grateful as we are for this outcome, we remind the public to be aware of how volatile and dangerous these situations can be, especially with armed suspects," Bird said in a statement Thursday.
Police 'amazed' as four customers thwart armed bank robbery in Abbotsford, B.C. (yahoo.com)
My opinion: I'm surprised that:
1. The robber is a woman, because usually men are behind armed robbery.
2. 4 customers fought back.
Good weather: There has been good weather all week. I was sitting outside with my tablet most of the time as I'm reading some news and listening to those self - development videos.
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