"Employers to hire more contract workers as economy emerges from pandemic: poll"/ "Rise in gig work during a recession unlikely with hot labour market, say economists"

Jul. 2, 2021 "Employers to hire more contract workers as economy emerges from pandemic: poll": Today I found this article by  Amanda Stephenson, The Canadian Press on Yahoo News:

CALGARY — Nearly 70 per cent of Canadian employers expect to hire more freelance or contract workers in the next two years as their businesses emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a new report.

The report — commissioned by human resources firm Ceridian — suggests the gig economy will accelerate as companies ramp up hiring post-pandemic. More than half of senior executives surveyed online said they anticipate expanding their workforce in the next 12 months as the economy reopens and 35 per cent said they will look to freelance or contract workers to do so.

Sixty-four per cent of employers surveyed think freelance or gig workers will substantially replace full-time workers within the next five years.

The pandemic has dramatically shifted the balance of power between employers and employees, said Steve Knox, vice-president of global talent acquisition for Ceridian. 

The rise of work-from-home means that many employees no longer feel tied to one physical workplace. 

Some employees don't want to return to the office at all, while others are demanding more work-life balance.

"We're expecting to see a rise in attrition, really across all organizations," Knox said. "We're already starting to see employees questioning, 

'Am I doing the type of work I want to do? They're re-evaluating their lives."

The potential for labour shortages means some employers may have little choice but to pad their workforce with temporary gig workers, Knox said. He says in some cases, employers are trying to hold onto employees who seem to prefer temporary contracts as the workplace shifts and changes post-COVID.

"We are seeing instances of, 'I just want to go and work for 10 months and then I want to take six months off to travel.' " Knox said. "People are really kind of questioning this commitment to a long-term employer.”

In Alberta, employers are starting to hire again thanks to rising oil prices and the end this week of nearly all COVID-19 public health restrictions, said Scott Crockatt, spokesman for the Business Council of Alberta, which represents more than 100 of the province's chief executives.

But there is still a great deal of caution, Crockatt said, and many companies are unwilling to pull the trigger on permanent hires.

"(Companies) might still be unsure exactly of what their labour needs and demands might be, so in some cases they're preferring to hire people in more flexible arrangements, like contract," he said.

While Knox said some employees seem eager for contract work in the post-COVID environment, Crockatt said that doesn't seem to be the case in Alberta. He said many workers who have spent the last 15 months riding out the double whammy of an oil price crash and a global pandemic are searching for long-term stability.

"(Companies) are finding that resistance to contract work, because of the potential unsettled nature of it, is making it doubly hard to recruit people," he said.

According to a May report by Payments Canada, gig workers including ride-share drivers, freelance writers, graphic designers and general contractors now represent more than one in 10 Canadian adults. 

More than one in three Canadian businesses employ gig workers, according to Payments Canada.

The Ceridian report was conducted by Hanover Research between April 26 and May 17, and surveyed 2,000 senior executives globally including 491 in Canada.

According to the polling industry's generally accepted standards, online surveys cannot be assigned a margin of error because they do not randomly sample the population.

Employers to hire more contract workers as economy emerges from pandemic: poll (yahoo.com)

Jan. 6, 2023 "Rise in gig work during a recession unlikely with hot labour market, say economists": Today I found this on CBC:

Economists say the expected economic slowdown in 2023 may not result in higher levels of gig work, 

unlike past recessions when levels of contract work and self-employment spiked.

They say the tight labour market, combined with a changing workforce and stubborn inflation, will make a possible recession this year different from those that preceded it.

"This is a confluence of factors we've never seen before," said economist Armine Yalnizyan.

Though gig work conjures thoughts of app-based work such as driving for Uber or finding clients through Fiverr, it has been around much longer. 

Taken more broadly, it includes contract, part-time and piecemeal work, or what Yalnizyan calls "just-in-time" labour.

And that kind of work tends to spike in times of recession, said Yalnizyan.

Possible 2023 recession will be different from past downturns

That spike happens for two broad reasons, said Sheila Block, senior economist with the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives. 

One is that recessions are normally characterized by widespread job loss, which means more unemployed people looking for work wherever they can find it. 

The second is that during a recession, employers are usually looking to cut costs and are more likely to hire contract or part-time labour instead of offering full-time, permanent positions.

According to Statistics Canada, the share of gig workers among all workers rose from 5.5 per cent in 2005 to 8.2 per cent in 2016. There were two sharp increases during that period, one corresponding with the Great Recession of 2008-09.

Statistics Canada data also shows that self-employment rose by 3.9 per cent in Canada between October 2008 and October 2009 — an increase of more than 100,000 self-employed people while the number of employed workers decreased by almost half a million.

Of course, 2023's downturn would be the first major recession where app-based work such as driving for ride-hailing apps is even a widely available option, said Yalnizayn.

In fact, the widely predicted 2023 downturn will be different from past major recessions in several significant ways.

Even as the economy shows signs of slowing, the labour market is still tight, said Yalnizyan. The unemployment rate remains low, at five per cent in December, and the market gained another outsized 104,000 jobs last month.

Employers in many industries are struggling to hire the workers they need. That means workers have more options for full-time work available to them.

Those two factors that normally lead to an increase in gig work during a recession are not present this time compared with previous recessions, said Block.

"We haven't seen a surge in self-employment yet this time," said Yalnizyan.

Boomer exit from workforce will lead to jobs

The baby boomer generation is also continuing to exit the workforce, leaving more jobs available. That may continue to keep the labour market strong in 2023, said Yalnizyan.

"So long as that demographic phenomenon continues, we may not see a huge spike in gig work," she said. And even the promised increase in immigration likely won't change the tide, she added, unless Canada gets better at matching new immigrants quickly to jobs in their skill set.

It's not normal to see both demand and supply sides of the labour market changing at the same time, said Yalnizyan.

"What will the recession look like? Well, it won't look like any other recession we've ever seen," she said.

Higher inflation also means that app-based gig work will pay even less when costs like gas are factored in, said Block, making it a less attractive option for many.

However, Block said much depends on the depth of the recession in 2023, which experts so far are predicting will be relatively mild. If it isn't, though, the labour market could start to look more like previous recessions, with widespread job losses, fewer full-time jobs available — and a spike in gig work.

But regardless of whether gig work increases significantly in 2023, there is already a large number of workers in Canada who are self-employed, many of them app-based gig workers or other kinds of independent contractors. 

And if those people lose hours or income because of a recession, they will struggle more than other workers to land on their feet due to a lack of protection from labour regulations and employment insurance, said Block.

"Whether there's an increase or not, the lack of protection for these low wage workers continues to be a huge problem," she said.

Rise in gig work during a recession unlikely with hot labour market, say economists | CBC News