Apr. 19, 2017 "Automation will have significant impact on jobs, but don't fear the robots says Bank of Canada's Wilkins": Today I found this article by Drew Hasselback in the Edmonton Journal:The Bank of Canada says Canadians should not be afraid that robots are about to steal their jobs. Canada’s central bank is counting on automation to provide a much-needed boost to Canada’s economic productivity, said Carolyn Wilkins, senior deputy governor of the bank, in a noon-hour speech Tuesday to the Toronto Board of Trade. For that to happen, Canadians need to embrace, not shun, the opportunities created by workplace automation, she said. The bank believes productivity will contribute two-thirds of the average 1.5 per cent growth expected in the Canadian economy over the next few years. “Productivity growth is the only game in town when it comes to raising the economic and financial well-being of people over a long period,” she said. |
The bank believes Canada’s economy needs to rev up its productivity, which has struggled since the early 2000s. If the productivity performance of the late 1990s had continued at that pace, Canada’s gross domestic product would be 23 per cent higher, meaning an extra $13,000 for every Canadian, she said. “Our underwhelming productivity performance since the early 2000s has cost us dearly.”
Automation may be the answer to productivity, but the bank acknowledges that technology and automation can displace some jobs in the short term. Wilkins cited studies by McKinsey & Company and the Brookfield Institute that suggest around 40 per cent of tasks currently done by humans could be automated.
As machines replace humans, policy makers should confront the disruption with programs that foster skills training, education and continuous learning.
Trade protectionism, she said, would be a major mistake because it would disrupt supply chains and reduce incentives to compete. “The risk of growing protectionism is something that concerns not only me, but everyone at the bank,” Wilkins said.
But Canadians should not expect a dystopian future in which machines make workers obsolete, she said. Technological change has been part of the economy since Canada was founded 150 years ago. Automation has not generated a sustained rise in unemployment.
As technology has replaced some human jobs, it’s also created productivity gains that have led to other employment opportunities.
A century ago, agriculture made up one third of all the jobs in Canada. That has shrunk to less than two per cent today.
As productivity gains enhance the output in sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing, costs for consumer goods decrease so people have more money to spend on other goods and services.
Adjusted for inflation, the average income per person in Canada is up 20-fold since Confederation.
“People’s spending appetite tends to grow along with productivity,” she said. “This phenomenon is observed not only in Canada but also in other advanced economies.”
Not every job could face immediate change, she said. Some jobs call for skills that won’t be mastered by computers any time soon, such as personal interaction, flexibility, problem solving and common sense.
She said that for now, humans should continue to be the best personal care workers, plumbers, consultants and — she joked — central bankers.
May 29, 2020: I looked up trade protectionism:
Trade protectionism is a policy that protects domestic industries from unfair competition from foreign ones. The four primary tools are tariffs, subsidies, quotas, and currency manipulation.1
https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-trade-protectionism-3305896
Apr. 22, 2017 "Companies shift from products to services": Today I found this article by Leah Eichler in the Globe and Mail:
The transition means workers will need to hone the soft skills that complement AI, such as critical thinking, creativity and empathy
Despite my best intentions this year, my credit-card statements have begun that upward creep that often strikes fear into my frugal heart. Desperate to gain control, I’ve begun to analyze my spending habits, considering I have no new clothes or items at home to show for these expenses. The culprit: I am apparently a sucker for services.
I subscribe to one that tracks my diet and makes suggestions based on my goals. Another tracks my sleep habits and lets me know under what conditions I reach REM. Others continually provide me with music based on my preferences and another keeps my kids primed with the latest virtual, multiplayer games.
There may have been a point in time where I would have just bought a scale, a sleep blindfold and some CDs, but I realize that more than products, I desire the data.
It doesn’t end there. While this sounds like it’s merely just part of the normal move toward the Internet of Things and artificial intelligence, the emphasis here is less on things than on services that provide data. Increasingly, companies are following the trend and moving from selling products to services.
“Everyone is turning into a service company,” said Nabeel Sherif, senior product manager at Q9 Networks and the lead for the University of Toronto’s cloud computing program.
“They will sell you the equipment, but then sell you the service of the management and monitoring of the equipment,” he added.
He speaks from experience. While working at GE Energy years ago, he witnessed the transition from selling only the utilities to tackling the bigger problem of system breakdown.
As a result, they began offering proactive substation monitoring of substation equipment.
As a result, they began offering proactive substation monitoring of substation equipment.
Naturally, it doesn’t stop at energy. John Deere, Mr. Sherif explained, no longer just sells tractors. They will also offer services that “talk to your tractor” and can tell you what’s working and what’s not, he added.
New companies will build in services. For example, if someone wanted to launch a new airline, they might not buy planes but pay for the thrust.
New companies will build in services. For example, if someone wanted to launch a new airline, they might not buy planes but pay for the thrust.
“We don’t buy assets any more. We buy outcomes,” Mr. Sherif explained.
So what does this mean for employees in the work force? While conventional wisdom dictates that everyone must hone their coding skills, that might not be the case.
In fact, it’s the soft skills that will assume greater value, according to Berlin-based Tim Leberecht, author of The Business Romantic and a consultant who helps companies with workplace culture and transformation.
In fact, it’s the soft skills that will assume greater value, according to Berlin-based Tim Leberecht, author of The Business Romantic and a consultant who helps companies with workplace culture and transformation.
“Ironically, as process-driven, linear work gets automated, more subjective tasks that require empathy, imagination and a nuanced understanding of meaning will become the stronghold of those with a broader, generalist skill set,” Mr. Leberecht said. “This favours liberal-arts majors or artists,” he added.
For example, he cites the increasing popularity of chatbots, or conversational robots and the need to keep improving on them. Mr. Leberecht predicts that chatbots will increase the need for “conversation design,” which will emerge as “a new critical skill set.”
“Already, companies like IBM are seeking to hire playwrights, poets or filmmakers who have a keen eye for human behaviour, high emotional intelligence and are adept at designing for ambiguous, complex verbal and nonverbal interactions [conversations],” he said.
To prepare for this future of work, employees and freelancers need to understand that the marketplace will favour those who are adaptable, who can adjust to new circumstances and requirements, he explained.
The marketplace will also favour extreme subject-matter experts and generalists. Those caught in the middle will lose out.
The marketplace will also favour extreme subject-matter experts and generalists. Those caught in the middle will lose out.
“A few years ago, the whole world began to tout coding as an essential skill set, just for us now to realize that coding may in fact be delegated to AI and no longer count as a differentiating skill in the job market,” Mr. Leberecht observed.
Rather, workers will need to hone the soft skills that complement AI, he explained, such as critical thinking, creativity and empathy.
Mr. Leberecht cites a recent Korn Ferry study that shows that in the near future, human resources will still be almost 2.5 times more valuable than all other production factors, such as real estate, inventory and technology combined.
The report goes on to say that artificial intelligence may mimic the brain but “it’s only as powerful as the imaginations that use it and is years away from developing full emotional intelligence.”
In other words, even though we are seeing a shift from product to service, and the technical requirements to adapt to the future of work will increase in complexity, it’s premature to write off the value emotional intelligence brings to the table.
“The future of work is indeed very human,” Mr. Lebrecht stated.
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