Nov. 30, 2016 "Robots in warehouses: job killers or indispensable?": Today I found this article by Chris Atchinson in the Globe and Mail:
The days of warehouses bustling with workers to pick boxes and fill orders could soon be a thing of the past if robotic automation continues to gain momentum.
Robots are already rapidly delivering efficiencies as organizations across North America reinvigorate their logistics facilities with fast-moving machines.
Not surprisingly, these non-sentient additions are also generating a high degree of anxiety among some workers who fear for their jobs as robots accelerate their march into the workplace. Not without cause: 58 per cent of chief executive officers from 140 global companies planned to decrease their employee head count over the next five years as a result of robotics, according to a 2014 leadership survey by consultancy PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP.
And in Canada, between 1.5 million and 7.5 million jobs could be at risk of automation in the next 10 to 15 years, according to a report just released by the University of Toronto’s school of public policy and governance.
Need for efficiencies
But the flip side is businesses need these efficiencies to survive in an increasingly competitive landscape with an aging work force, experts say. However, Canadian companies lag competitors abroad in introducing warehousing automation, according to Marc Wulfraat, president of supply chain and logistics consulting firm MWPVL International Inc. in Montreal.
For those in the business of manufacturing robotic equipment, the transformation of the fulfilment system, if not the wider economy, is already here. And it may carry some benefits, says one provider.
“Technology provides … better jobs,” says Simon Drexler, director of industrial robotics for Kitchener, Ont.-based Clearpath Robotics Inc., whose industrial subsidiary Otto Motors designs and manufactures self-driving vehicles for warehouse, manufacturing and industrial environments across North America, and beyond.
“If you were an accountant when computers came out you would probably be terrified that you would lose your job, but what a computer allowed accountants to do was become data analysts.”
Transformation of warehousing
What we know for certain is that automation is transforming the warehousing industry, not to mention manufacturing facilities across the globe, as companies such as Amazon.com continue to embrace robotic assistance for jobs previously managed by humans.
Media reports indicate that e-retailing giant Amazon.com Inc. has cut costs by as much as $22-million in those fulfilment centres in which it deployed Kiva robots.
In a report, British market research firm Technavio estimates the market for logistics robots will reach $2.15-billion (U.S.) by 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of about 32 per cent over that period.
The PwC leadership survey indicates that 94 per cent of CEOs whose organizations had incorporated robotics into their operations found they helped boost productivity, while 64 per cent are counting on robots to help them innovate and increase revenue per employee.
Canadian companies
In Canada, retailers such as Hudson’s Bay Co. and grocery chain Sobeys Inc. have taken a lead role in the automation of their facilities, with the former investing more than $60-million to streamline operations at its distribution centres in a bid to compete with Amazon.com and others.
Indeed, in much of the world, the future is here when it comes to warehouse automation.
Drones, self-driving vehicles and even legged robots are handling tasks ranging from unloading trucks and picking orders, to gathering data and assisting with inventory management.
Drones, self-driving vehicles and even legged robots are handling tasks ranging from unloading trucks and picking orders, to gathering data and assisting with inventory management.
According to Mr. Drexler, organizations typically turn to robots to solve one of three problems: tackling labour shortages, gaining a cost advantage or improving efficiency.
Clearpath Robotics has been a clear beneficiary of that. The company, founded in 2009 by four University of Waterloo engineers, earned a place on Deloitte’s 2016 Technology Fast 50 ranking, posting three-year revenue growth of 662 per cent.
‘Smart factory’
“I really think we’re progressing toward the smart factory as a society,” says Mr. Drexler. “It’s about centralized operational data, about having interconnected devices feeding information into a centralized database, which gives the systems and processes utilizing the data as well as the people analyzing that data a better information pool about how operations are actually running in real time.
“Once you have that information, you’re able to make significantly better decisions about where you should be investing time in improvement initiatives to make your facility more efficient.”
But while robots are commonplace in facilities across Northern Europe, particularly Germany, Canada remains a relative laggard when it comes to automation, according to MWPVL’s Mr. Wulfraat.
Why? He points to rapidly increasing labour costs that have forced manufacturers and distributors in Europe to continuously search for cost efficiencies – in many cases replacing human labourers with cheaper robots who don’t collect salaries, claim benefits or take sick leave.
Labour costs
“In Denmark there are people who make $75,000 per year … to drive a forklift in a production facility or warehouse,” he notes. “When the labour rates get that high then businesses look to automate.”
Mr. Wulfraat says that in North America, many organizations – particularly smaller ones – will often avoid multimillion-dollar investments in automation unless they can reasonably expect to recoup their investment in a few years or less.
In Canada, he says, the use of warehousing automation for smaller companies tends to be targeted to areas such as packaging, while capital investments on robotics tend to be capped at around $1-million or less.
Canadian companies usually can’t afford to automate to the same degree as their U.S. or European competitors because of smaller markets and limited economies of scale.
Demographics
But the tide is slowly beginning to turn even in the Great White North, according to Mr. Wulfraat, largely because of demographics.
“The work force is shrinking and companies are struggling to find labour to fill their facilities,” he points out.
That’s the precise reason why he feels that fears of robots fuelling a surge in unemployment are not imminent.
Consider this: The U.S. federal government projects a roughly 5-per-cent reduction in the country’s overall labour force participation rate by 2040, equivalent to about 20 million fewer workers, largely because of an aging population.
Statistics Canada’s projections are similar for the Canadian economy.
That’s why companies are wise to be proactive in their embrace of robotics, says Mr. Wulfraat, or risk being left behind when demographic pressures make finding labour even more challenging and costly.
“It takes time to integrate automation, it doesn’t happen overnight. If you’re the person who wakes up and realizes it’s 2030 and you can’t find people to run your warehouse and your competitors have already done this, pushing more volume out at a lower cost per case, that’s going to be a major differentiator.”
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Harry the Hound
5 days ago
This time machines are not only mechanical but intelligent.
Our challenge is sociological. How does society benefit from machines without the devastation and impoverishment that occumpanied the previous industrial revolution?
Machines doing the drudgery will permit humans to be human leading to a new renaissance.
3 Reactions
jojo ba
3 days ago
The problem is that the replacement of the masses with robotic systems will only lead to the enrichment of the 1% and the change to the entire social system, across the globe, will never happen due to the mid set of that 1%.
1 Reaction
J_Lee
3 days ago
I doubt it. Investors in hudson's bay, for example, might still be in 1%, but they don't seem to be benefited from robotic automatiion: HBC's stock price is not doing that well after all.
2 Reactions
RonsterG
1 day ago
In reply to:
The problem is that the replacement of the masses with robotic systems will only lead to the enrichment of the 1% and the change to the entire social system, across the globe, will never happen due...
— jojo ba
Governments will have to design new income distribution and tax paradigms to fit the shift in the labour market. Ultimately if mechanization replaces the human workforce without a corresponding new avenue of employment opening up for the displaced masses, who's going to have the income to buy the products that the robots are manufacturing?
You can only have continuous consumption with a continuous income stream. If the 1% benefits from the displacement of the human workforce then a greater share of the burden of supporting the needs of society as a whole will have to borne by those who are benefiting.
In a utopian society this would free more people to pursue endeavours that are more soul fulfilling and geared towards enhancing the quality of life like arts and culture or to volunteering their time to meet the needs of society without the dependency on working for remuneration in order to survive. As I said utopian.
You can only have continuous consumption with a continuous income stream. If the 1% benefits from the displacement of the human workforce then a greater share of the burden of supporting the needs of society as a whole will have to borne by those who are benefiting.
In a utopian society this would free more people to pursue endeavours that are more soul fulfilling and geared towards enhancing the quality of life like arts and culture or to volunteering their time to meet the needs of society without the dependency on working for remuneration in order to survive. As I said utopian.
jojo ba
6 hours ago
The change would have to happen globally as Canada or the US could not exist under a new system on it's own. Given that governments cannot even agree on climate change how would they agree on a total change to the economic system. It could only happen under a new world order an unfortunately it will probably be more like the movie the Terminator than utopia.
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jojo ba
3 days ago
There is no field of work that is not going to be touched by AI and robotics. In the next decade you won't need an accountant or lawyer as the professions are covered by basic rules and precedence. Bank tellers are being phased out as will loans officers as banking moves online.
Robots will be build and designed by robots and so on. Where does this all lead? As more jobs are replaced or automated there will be less disposable income to fuel the economy and more people requiring government assistance at a time when there is lower tax revenues.
The only thing that make sense is that a portion of society is preparing for a time when there will be substantially fewer people to service their needs. Maybe there is a portion of the population that believes in a future where there are only 500 million living a Utopian lifestyle serviced by robots. They themselves may become cyborgs to all eternal youth.
Robots will be build and designed by robots and so on. Where does this all lead? As more jobs are replaced or automated there will be less disposable income to fuel the economy and more people requiring government assistance at a time when there is lower tax revenues.
The only thing that make sense is that a portion of society is preparing for a time when there will be substantially fewer people to service their needs. Maybe there is a portion of the population that believes in a future where there are only 500 million living a Utopian lifestyle serviced by robots. They themselves may become cyborgs to all eternal youth.
1 Reaction
Straight talk
2 days ago
In Australian mining industry giant earth-movers are fully automated. It is efficient, safe, and economic. Unwittingly, self-destruction of human society is built in to human psyche. That is not intelligence.
Nov. 26, 2016 "The burgeoning market for artificial intelligence": Today I found this article by Ajay Agrawal in the Globe and Mail:
For most people, it is not easy to picture the buying and selling of cognitive capabilities that have traditionally been embedded in humans – things like judgment and decision-making.
Yet, thanks to recent advances in machine learning, we face the very real possibility of precisely such a ‘market for intelligence’. Given the potential of this market to transform the entire global economy, we must all begin preparing – now – for its emergence.
Yet, thanks to recent advances in machine learning, we face the very real possibility of precisely such a ‘market for intelligence’. Given the potential of this market to transform the entire global economy, we must all begin preparing – now – for its emergence.
To be clear, machine intelligence is still in its infancy, and while some of the current applications are remarkable, none are transformational. For example, the recommendation engines employed by companies such as Amazon and Netflix – which learn our preferences and recommend which books we should buy or which movies we should watch – are a common application of machine learning.
Although they may increase the sales of books and movies – and may even enhance social welfare to some extent, by increasing matches between consumers and products – they do not represent a transformation to the economy.
Although they may increase the sales of books and movies – and may even enhance social welfare to some extent, by increasing matches between consumers and products – they do not represent a transformation to the economy.
Similarly, in the healthcare sector, applications of machine intelligence that identify and classify tumours from medical imaging data – with a higher degree of accuracy than the best human technicians – will surely enhance the productivity of doctors; but they will not transform the broader economy.
I suspect the reason why the driverless car has had such an effect on people is because it shows them something truly transformational: most people imagined a bigger gap between the machine’s recommendation system and the cognitive requirements of a human driver.
They are shocked to learn that, in fact, this new machine does not actually need human input at all.
They are shocked to learn that, in fact, this new machine does not actually need human input at all.
How will advances in machine intelligence transition from providing simple productivity enhancements in individual, narrow markets, to transforming the overall economy? Will such a transition happen gradually or suddenly?
To the extent that the last technology shock – the Internet – offers guidance on this question, the answer is both.
In the case of the Internet, the development of the technology and associated infrastructure occurred gradually, but the transformative impact on the global economy occurred relatively suddenly.
The economic transformation began abruptly in 1995. In 1991, the High Performance Computing Act passed; in 1992, Network Solutions took control of the domain name system and the Internet Society was founded; in 1993, the Mosaic Browser was launched for Unix and Windows OS; and in 1994, the cookie was invented at Netscape and the World Wide Web Consortium was founded.
Then, in 1995, Bill Gates wrote his famous ‘Internet tidal wave’ e-mail, Microsoft launched Windows 95 and Netscape went public with a market capitalization of $3-billion – without displaying a nickel of profit.
The economic transformation began abruptly in 1995. In 1991, the High Performance Computing Act passed; in 1992, Network Solutions took control of the domain name system and the Internet Society was founded; in 1993, the Mosaic Browser was launched for Unix and Windows OS; and in 1994, the cookie was invented at Netscape and the World Wide Web Consortium was founded.
Then, in 1995, Bill Gates wrote his famous ‘Internet tidal wave’ e-mail, Microsoft launched Windows 95 and Netscape went public with a market capitalization of $3-billion – without displaying a nickel of profit.
So, when will machine intelligence experience its own ‘1995’?
As with any early-stage, general-purpose technology, there is much speculation and debate. For example, last fall, Tesla CEO Elon Musk remarked: “AI is much more advanced than people realize.” To which deep-learning pioneer Yann LeCun responded via Twitter: “No, it’s not. Quite the opposite in fact.”
Within this fog of uncertainty, futuristic depictions abound. Not only are fiction writers featuring AI in stories like Transcendence, Her and Ex Machina, but governments – notably Japan, Germany, China and the United States – are featuring machine intelligence in their industrial strategies.
In the midst of all the speculation, real companies and investors are making real capital allocation decisions – today. In 2014, Google acquired the pre-revenue AI startup Deep Mind for approximately $500-million and created AlphaGo – which this year famously beat the world’s top human player at the ancient Chinese game, Go, demonstrating what appeared to be ‘machine intuition’.
In March 2016, General Motors acquired AI startup Cruise for more than $1-billion to help turn regular vehicles into self-driving cars, and the following month, Salesforce acquired AI startup MetaMind to automate and personalize marketing and customer support.
In March 2016, General Motors acquired AI startup Cruise for more than $1-billion to help turn regular vehicles into self-driving cars, and the following month, Salesforce acquired AI startup MetaMind to automate and personalize marketing and customer support.
Companies such as these are betting on how the future will unfold, and their bets are endogenous, in that they will influence the rate and direction of technological development – as well as where and how it occurs.
The downfall of once-mighty corporations like Barnes & Noble and Blockbuster provide ample warning for those contemplating a ‘wait-and-see’ strategy with respect to AI.
It is incumbent upon investors, governments and firms in every sector to have a thesis regarding how their industry will be transformed when the necessary technological and regulatory pieces snap into place, and the world is suddenly confronted with a functioning market for intelligence.
It is incumbent upon investors, governments and firms in every sector to have a thesis regarding how their industry will be transformed when the necessary technological and regulatory pieces snap into place, and the world is suddenly confronted with a functioning market for intelligence.
While there is plenty of disagreement as to when AI will come to fruition, one thing is clear: decisions of significant consequence lie ahead.
Ajay Agrawal is the Peter Munk Professor of Entrepreneurship, Professor of Strategic Management and Academic Director of the Creative Destruction Lab at the Rotman School of Management.
A version of this article appeared in the Fall 2016 issue of Rotman Management, the magazine of the University of Toronto’s Rotman School of Management. Reprinted with permission.
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My opinion: Both articles are intelligent and well-written.
This week's theme is about jobs and technology in the present and future:
"The digital economy will not power a recovery"/ "App gives employees control of scheduling" (Shyft)
"AI ethics: how far should companies go to retain employees?"/ "How to spot warning signs of disruptive innovation"
My week:
Nov. 21, 2020 Naturalizer closing down;.
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/shoe-retailer-caleres-close-133-215208394.html
My opinion: I wasn't really a big fan of that store. I'm sure some of you guys are saying:
"I have to read the 'my week' part. What if a store is closing down either it's in the news or a location at a mall?"
Nov. 23, 2020 "His bank raided his account to cover a payment made to scammers":
Justin Smith has been hit with a one-two punch of bad luck.
First, the Toronto man was duped by a job scam that made off with $3,000. Then his longtime bank, Tangerine, helped itself to money Smith had in his tax-free savings account to recoup what it had lost in the scam.
"You keep your money in the bank because you think it's safe," he said. "And they treat the money like it's theirs, and they just move it around to protect themselves. That's not fair."
Tangerine is an online subsidiary of Scotiabank that offers no-fee savings and chequing accounts.
Here's how the double episode of misfortune unfolded:
Smith, who works as a delivery person, had applied to work from home as a data entry clerk for the grocery chain Sobeys. He was offered the job, and was excited to receive an employment contract along with a cheque from his new employer for $3,495 to purchase a laptop, phone system, headphones and various other office equipment.
"It all looked totally authentic and real," he said.
Smith had checked out the names of the people who handled his hiring, and reviewed their profiles on LinkedIn to confirm they worked at Sobeys. So when he received an invoice from a firm called Tech Insight Services for the office equipment, and was instructed by the Sobeys hiring manager to make a $3,000 payment right away, he promptly sent an e-transfer.
"I only had $800 or so in my chequing account at the time, but after depositing the Sobeys cheque, I had over $4,000," he said.
What Smith didn't know was that the entire process was a sophisticated scam. The website where he'd applied, the supposed hiring managers, the cheque — all were fakes. His job application hadn't been sent to Sobeys at all. He had fallen into a snare set to swindle eager job seekers. The cheque even fooled Tangerine; the bank instantly deposited it to Smith's account.
Alarm bells didn't start ringing until the next day, when Smith's supposedly new employer told him he should send another $3,500 for a new desk.
"At this point, I became suspicious because no one spends that kind of money on a desk," he said. "I called up Tangerine and I said 'OK, I deposited a cheque yesterday, you guys let me send the money. I'm concerned that this cheque is going to bounce.'"
After being contacted by CBC's Go Public team, Tangerine said it will refund the $3,000 to Smith, and also pay $250 for a credit monitoring service for him.
In the article, there was a link to this story which I posted on my blog too:
He quit his job to take a new position — but the job offer was a scam | CBC News
His bank raided his account to cover a payment made to scammers (yahoo.com)
My opinion: I have to post this and inform everybody about this scam.
1. Do not send money or e-transfer for supplies even if it's for work.
2. If you deposit the check into your account, there is a high chance it will bounce and be a fake check.
3. As for work from home, most companies would mail you the computer and equipment.
My brother is in finance and he had a computer and equipment mailed to him so he can work from home.
Concentrix: I got a phone call from them, and I was told they will send the computer and equipment to me.
Here's my personal experience where I almost got scammed out of $4000 when I deposited a check for my "job":
Tracy's blog: Scream 4/ Southgate Construction scam (badcb.blogspot.com)
Nov. 25, 2020 A Christmas present for an autistic man: I found this on my friend Heather's Facebook page and I shared this on my page and on this blog. I was like: Awww.... there are a lot of comments about going on ebay where there are available The Land Before Time toys:
